Not time to panic - Yet - but please keep a close eye on the weather....
this email from Jon Halverson w/USFS
"I know you stay up on this pretty well on your own but just FYI, with Oktoberfest coming up this weekend.
As specified in NCR's permit, rocket launches are not permitted when a Red Flag Warning (RFW) or Fire Weather Watch (FWW) is in effect.
There is a Red Flag Warning in effect for Weld County, which includes the Pawnee NG, for today till 1800. Things are expected to be hot, dry and windy out there.
That's the bad news.
The good news is that the weather forecast I just got from our dispatch center shows temps expected to get cooler, humidities to get higher and winds to lessen over the next several days and through the weekend.
Those conditions would SUGGEST (nothing is definite at this stage, of course) that there will NOT be a RFW or FWW in effect by Fri, the first day of flights for Oktoberfest. Obviously, you folks will need to exercise caution - like always - but it looks like conditions should be good enough to allow the event to proceed as scheduled.
If I get further info, I'll pass it on."
Seems like a good guy. Nice of him to give the heads up rather than just dropping a hammer at the last minute if weather conditions aren't good.
Major fire burning west of Ft. Collins as I type this - it is one of the bigger fires I've witnessed from my office. Not good.
I'll miss O'Fest, everyone have a great time!
A heavy column of smoke visible directly west of Fort Collins is coming from a planned and controlled burn on 21 acres at Horsetooth Mountain Open Space.
Larimer County officials are managing and monitoring the fire, which was intentionally set to improve forest health, increase understory plant diversity and return fire to a natural area that benefits from low-intensity fires.
The burn is part of a fuels-management project in Horsetooth Mountain Park. Residents are asked to not call 911 about the smoke.
Hey guys,
Did we get any new updates?, turns out I should leave by noon on thursday.
I see the weather Saturday by NOAA is saying 60% rain. Is there a reason that Oktoberfest the 2nd weekend? It seems like if we are hosting a multi-day event we'd want to move it a couple weeks earlier to try and stack the weather deck more in our favor.
Edward
I see the chance of rain on Saturday is increasing. It was only 40% this morning. Of course, if this sees reality, it certainly does cut down on the fire danger and Sunday is laible to be real busy!
I thought the date of Oktoberfest was designed to coincide with the Columbus Day Holiday, where the post office, and banks, and the stock market are all closed here in the U.S. That is this Monday, the 10th.
Any body have a big wall tent where we can have a party, share building tips, and have a good time (or at least, stay warm) on Saturday? (I'll bring some wood for a fire) I guess I can build a rocket or work on the ones I bring on Saturday while we wait for it to clear up. Neither rain, or snow, or dark of night can deter the Northern Colorado Rocketeers. Who knows, we might even get snow Friday night, even though it is not in the forecast. (yet) 🙄
I think that was the plan, but there are not a lot of people who have it off anymore. I know that Poudre, Big Thompson, Greeley and Denver school districts don't have it off. I guess I'd rather have 3 days of a chance of nicer late September weather than a chance of 4 days of October weather.
Also, when it rains out there the road in can get nasty, as evidenced by the Sunday of this year's MHM.
Edward
Once I get there, I plan on just waiting it out. Sit in my tent and read a book while sipping on a cup of Earl Grey unless something more interesting comes along. I do know what you mean about the road, but it should dry rather quickly unless it is absolutely saturated, which would mean the prairie is not running off. Then I would expect to see a large ark and the animals gathering, two by two. 🙂
Me tooooo. I will be there in the day, all four days. I may
leave early afternoon Saturday. ???? If raining that is.
I figure a few launches are better than none. We can
get many hundred launched on a two day launch. Three
out of the four days look good. The rain Saturday will
make for a good Sunday/Monday.
I sleep well during wet days. That is probably what will
end up for me. Can't help it...it just happens. 😯
DRAT - this weekend is possibly in peril! From the National Weather Service:
Red Flag Warning - RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS OF COLORADO...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING.
We are still proceeding with plans for set up and operations but forewarned of High Fire Risk and wind and possibly rain. Colorado weather.
Hey guys,
Who said to stop dancing, I said DANCE!
🙁
Just curious which one of these zones is us; * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 238...239...240...241...
242...243...244...245...246...247...248...249...250 AND 251.
Upon finding this website: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/bou/firewx/fire_mainmap.php , the launch sites are in Fire Weather Zone 238. If you go to the link and then click on Zone 238, you can get the current forecast. I hope this helps. 8)
The discussion on when to hold Oktoberfest has been ongoing for years. We had a similar weather experience in 2006 as I recall and we pushed it up to the 1st weekend in October. However, BALLS then got moved later, from the last week in September to the 1st week in October and a number of us felt we'd prefer to be able to attend both events. I for one, wouldn't be sad to move it back to the 1st weekend in October.
That said, the weather this weekend looks like crap - at least Saturday. I'm seeing minimum 60% chance of rain at Nunn. Looks like I won't be coming.
Sunday still looks good. That's what I'll be shooting for. Now I just need to decide if I'm going to try to set up on Saturday. I still need to do some ground testing and I can't find my nylong screw shear pins. Grrr. Maybe I'll get some toothpicks.